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The geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East threatens a quiet pillar of global industry: the petrochemical sector. Highly dependent on naphtha , liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and methanol from the Gulf, Asia is feeling the initial shockwaves, with low stocks on the one hand and sharply rising prices on the other.
Jean-Christophe Caffet, Group Chief Economist at Coface, shared his insights on the key learnings from 2025 and the outlook for 2026 at the latest Coface Country Risk Conference on February 17.
On 20 February, the US Supreme Court invalidated the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ imposed by the Trump administration. This is a major legal setback, but it does not change the overall trade policy landscape. The United States continues to maintain historically high tariffs, and the environment remains unstable for businesses.
Coface CEO Xavier Durand analyzes the war in Iran and its short- and medium-term risks for French newspaper Le Figaro.
Where will the most significant business risks emerge in 2026? Coface economists evaluate 160 economies and 13 major industries to support companies in understanding risk levels, planning investments, and making well-informed international business decisions.
Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments for 160 countries and 13 sectors.
Some say the bold days of global trade are over: it's only clouded by caution. Progress still belongs to those who are looking outward, adapting faster, reaching further. The proliferation of risks is forcing large companies to adapt their analysis frameworks and deploy new resources, often in real time, or even to rethink their strategy. How can large European groups come out on top? Insights from multinational executives and partners at the Coface Country Risk Conference 2026 .
The military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran is putting extreme pressure on energy markets. Although no major supply disruptions have been reported yet, the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz pose a threat to the global economy if the conflict continues.
Geopolitical tensions are intensifying: what are the consequences for globalisation and economic stability? At the Coface Country Risk Conference on February 17, four experts share their analyses of these geostrategic rivalries that are impacting global trade.
Momentum for the global economy has been varied moving into 2026. We expect growth of +2.6% this year – a very minor downtick on +2.8% in 2025 – despite an international environment marked by persistent geopolitical, financial and social risks.
After nearly twenty years of stop-start negotiations, the EU and India have finalized one of the most ambitious free trade agreements (FTAs) of the last decade, opening up their markets while protecting sensitive sectors. The benefits are expected to be gradual, but already offer tangible prospects for goods, services, and investments on both sides.
A key metal in the electronics industry — solder alone accounts for 50% of global demand — tin is benefiting greatly from energy and digital transitions. However, supply growth remains limited, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Myanmar, which is expected to lead to a supply deficit as early as 2026, the first since 2021.
Expanding into emerging markets presents significant opportunities for businesses looking to grow their global footprint. These markets offer untapped potential, a growing consumer base, and competitive cost advantages. However, they also come with inherent challenges, including economic volatility, political instability, and the risk of payment defaults. For companies extending trade credit to customers in these regions, managing account receivables effectively becomes a crucial aspect of financial stability. This is where trade credit insurance plays a vital role.
In 2026, business insolvencies are expected to rise slightly again, against a backdrop of gradually easing financing costs. Behind this apparent stabilisation lies a still high level of fragility, particularly in the construction, chemical and textile industries. A rise of just 25 basis points in interest rates on business loans would be enough to upset an easing trend.
As the NextGenerationEU program draws to a close, only 58% of the funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility have been disbursed, leaving nearly €270 billion to be disbursed by the end of 2026. This under-absorption weakens the growth momentum and structural objectives set by the plan.
Late payments can pose serious challenges for businesses, disrupting cash flow, straining supplier relationships, and hindering growth opportunities. These delays, which are often tied to broader economic or industry-specific trends, can threaten financial stability, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Understanding the challenges posed by late payments and implementing tools like trade credit insurance can help businesses safeguard their operations and offset these risks effectively.
The year 2025 marked a turning point for the global economy. Between the Trump shock, Chinese overcapacity and geopolitical tensions, companies must redefine their strategies. Growth, insolvencies, changing margins: our experts analyse the challenges of 2026 and share their advice on how to strengthen your company's resilience in the face of the turbulence ahead.
Two years ago, on November 19, 2023, the Galaxy Leader, a Bahamian-flagged roll-on/roll-off ship chartered by the Japanese company Nippon Yusen, was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. Less than two months after the start of the conflict between Hamas and Israel, this episode marked the beginning of a series of more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the area, claimed by the Yemeni organization in support of Hamas.
In early December, the European Commission approved a support plan for the wine industry, which is facing unfavorable economic conditions and growing structural difficulties. Although substantial, this plan only addresses part of the problem for the time being, overlooking the decline in European consumption and export difficulties.
US business failures have reached a historic milestone: for the first time since the pandemic began, they have consistently exceeded 2019 levels. Marcos Carias, our economist for North America, provides insights into this trend and its implications for the coming months.
What is Financial Risk? Financial risk refers to the possibility of losing money or facing financial instability due to various internal or external factors. These risks can impact individuals, businesses, and financial markets, potentially disrupting operations, reducing profits, or leading to insolvency. Financial risk arises from uncertainties in financial markets, economic conditions, or an organization's own financial structure. Identifying and managing these risks is crucial for maintaining financial stability and achieving long-term goals.
Nickel prices are at a five-year low, but the long-term outlook tells a different story. Read our expert's analysis to uncover the trends and long-term outlook.
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Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments for 160 countries and 13 sectors.
Dive into the world of global trade with Coface's Trade Talk podcast. Explore captivating discussions with trade experts, explore market dynamics, and uncover strategies for growth.
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